Testing Every Indicator
Traders love indicators. RSI, MACD, Bollinger Bands, VWAP — the list goes on. But which one actually predicts breakout success in 0DTE options?
We tested 14 common technical indicators across all 488,903 one-minute SPY bars, measuring each indicator's ability to predict whether a strike breach would sustain or reverse.
Methodology
For each indicator, we calculated a predictive accuracy score: the percentage of time the indicator correctly classified a breach as "real" (price continued beyond the strike) or "fake" (price reversed within 15 minutes).
Results
The results were unambiguous:
| Indicator | Accuracy |
|---|---|
| Volume Ratio (3-bar) | 78.4% |
| Volume Ratio (5-bar) | 74.1% |
| RSI (14) | 52.3% |
| VWAP Deviation | 51.8% |
| Bollinger Band Width | 49.7% |
| MACD Histogram | 48.2% |
Why Volume Wins
Volume captures the one thing other indicators miss: conviction. When a strike breach happens on high volume, it means institutional money is behind the move. When it happens on low volume, it's noise — retail orders, algorithm probes, or simple randomness.
Key Takeaway
If you're using VWAP, RSI, or MACD to make 0DTE trading decisions, you're working with tools that are barely better than a coin flip. Volume ratio is the only indicator in our dataset that consistently beats random chance by a significant margin.
Full methodology and raw data available in our research section.